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What a second Trump presidency would mean for the European far-right

Poll to Poll 2024: A year of elections around the world
Georgios Samaras

Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Public Policy

31 October 2024

As the upcoming US election looms, memories of 2016 and 2020 resurface, with Donald Trump’s firm grip on the Republican Party placing his influence at the centre of discussions on party politics. With polls indicating a closely-contested race, it is worth examining how Trump’s sway could recalibrate the European far-right's strategies, potentially driving a further normalisation of extreme right-wing politics across the continent.

Transatlantic Ties

It is important to distinguish between the far-right in the US and Europe, as these movements arise from distinct political and historical landscapes. Despite this, the recent formation of the Eurogroup Patriots for Europe highlights Trump’s symbolic role for several far-right European parties, including Fidesz, National Rally, League, and Party for Freedom, who regard him as a quasi-messianic figure. These alliances reveal a broader transatlantic fascination with right-wing populist figures and a seemingly increasing acceptance of fascist ideas that were once unthinkable in post-World War II Europe.

What might this alignment mean for the European far-right? Trump’s rhetoric and policy agenda openly champion far-right ideologies, pushing for the normalisation of measures such as extreme immigration control, increased corporatism through figures like Elon Musk, and intensified attacks on LGBTQ rights. This trajectory reflects his broader agenda of cultural confrontation, with trans rights as one of the most polarising issues. This culture war, which finds frequent targets in LGBTQ and minority rights, resonates with authoritarian-leaning European leaders who often embrace similar values and political goals. It reveals a synchronisation of ideas across the Atlantic that goes beyond mere policy alignment and into a deeper ideological affinity rooted in reactionary values.

Fascist Agendas Emerge: the Rise of ‘Strongman’ Politics

Trump’s engagement with authoritarian European figures, which has intensified since 2020, signals a transatlantic allegiance bolstering his 2024 campaign.

Trump's strongest European ally, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has repeatedly lauded Trump over the past year, reinforcing the notion that a Trump victory could rejuvenate the far-right. They celebrated each other publicly at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Europe last April, with Orbán visiting Trump in Mar-a-Lago this July. Trump recently acknowledged Orbán’s endorsement, describing him as “one of the most respected men,” while Orbán reportedly countered by calling Trump “the most respected, most feared person.”

Alongside Orbán, he has shown solidarity with Vladimir Putin, Nigel Farage, and even invoked authoritarian figures, suggesting a desire for a government led by ‘strongmen.’ Trump’s 2016 victory paved the way for the legitimisation of far-right European parties. Although Steven Bannon’s attempt to export the “Make Europe Great Again” vision faltered, the ideologies Trump represented began seeping into the continent’s far-right agenda. Over the past five to six years, this influence has shaken Europe’s traditional parties, as the allure of fascist ideas increasingly re-enters the political mainstream.

Germany’s AfD, openly inspired by Trump, has adopted comparable positions, and Dutch politician Geert Wilders – often dubbed the “Dutch Trump” – mirrors his policies, from (now scrapped) mosque bans to LGBTQ discrimination. This cultural alignment reinforces the perception that a fascist agenda, long dormant in post-war Europe, is being revived under the influence of Trump-inspired rhetoric. These far-right leaders’ positioning on immigration, nationalism, and identity politics not only reflects Trump’s America but also highlights how young voters, in particular, are engaging with these ideas across Europe.

Youth Vote: Europe’s Generational Drift Rightwards

Furthermore, younger generations’ drift toward the far-right raises concerns about the persistence of fascist ideas in modern Europe. In Austria, amidst frustrations over the cost of living and immigration anxieties, the far-right FPÖ gained traction among those under 34, with 27% of the youth vote and 37% among those aged 35 to 59. Similarly, in France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has become the most popular party among voters under 34. In Germany, the AfD saw significant gains among young voters, particularly in Thuringia and Saxony, where around 16% of voters under 25 backed the party.

This rightward drift among younger demographics hints at an unsettling acceptance of far-right values and even fascist ideologies. At a time when social media amplifies cultural and political divisions, the alignment with Trump’s culture wars and his broader agenda suggests a profound generational impact that could reshape Europe’s political landscape for decades to come.

A far-right future?

As US policy veers further towards authoritarianism, the potential for a second Trump presidency raises critical questions about Europe’s political future. Would far-right parties shift further rightwards, embracing an explicitly illiberal stance? How might centre-right factions adjust, faced with potential irrelevance should extreme-right ideas gain mainstream acceptance?

Over recent years, right-wing ideas have steadily permeated the political mainstream, raising the stakes for the next four years. Once-undisputed liberal democratic principles are now contested within the platforms of European far-right parties, indicating that further normalisation of authoritarianism remains a real possibility. Even within the centre right, voices calling for a return to “strong values” and a stance against progressive ideals have grown louder. This emboldening effect highlights the dynamic between Trump’s narrative and the European far-right: a reciprocal endorsement that sustains and spreads ideas previously regarded as too radical.

With fertile ground for far-right expansion not seen since World War II, US influence—driven largely by social media—could amplify these shifts should Trump secure the presidency. The world is watching intently, as the implications of this election may reshape the European far-right in ways never before witnessed.

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Georgios Samaras

Georgios Samaras

Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Public Policy

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