King's College London

Around half the public expect the number of people living in poverty (52%) and the gap between richest and poorest (45%) to have increased by the end of the government’s current term, according to a new survey which underscores the scale of the challenge Labour faces as it looks to restore confidence in the economy. 

Only one in seven people think poverty (14%) or the wealth gap (13%) will reduce within this Parliament. 

Carried out just two weeks before the Budget, the research, by the Policy Institute at King’s College London and the Fairness Foundation, finds the public are also more likely to think that by 2029 their own standard of living will have decreased (33%) or stayed the same (34%), rather than increased (19%).

And more expect funding for public services to fall (32%) than rise (26%), while there is little consensus on what will happen to the rate of economic growth, with a quarter believing it will increase (27%), that it will stay the same (27%), and that it will decrease (26%). 

Economic success will be key to improving faith in the political system, but the public are nearly four times as likely to expect trust in government to decrease rather than increase (52% vs 14%) over the lifetime of this Parliament.

The research, which is based on a nationally representative survey of 2,050 UK adults, also finds Labour voters are almost as pessimistic as Conservative voters about some economic prospects – though Reform voters are often more pessimistic still. 

And the very rich are perceived to be more powerful than national governments – a continuation of a shift in views seen for the first time last year.

Labour voters are nearly as pessimistic as Conservative voters on some measures…

44% of Labour voters expect poverty to have increased by the end of the government’s first term, and 40% think the level of economic inequality between the richest and poorest in society will have risen – similar to the 51% and 48% of Conservative voters who say the same, respectively, about these outcomes.

However, Labour voters are more likely than Conservatives to think the rate of economic growth will increase (44% vs 24%), that funding for public services will rise (41% vs 28%), and that their own standard of living will improve (28% vs 17%).

And while Labour voters are more inclined than Conservative voters to say public trust in government will improve (28% vs 10%), they are still more likely to think trust will decline (37%).

…but Reform voters are often more pessimistic still

62% of Reform voters think the number of people living in poverty will have risen by the end of the government’s current term – a greater share than among the public overall or voters for either of the two main parties. 

Similarly, roughly half (48%) of Reform voters predict their own standard of living will decline, compared with 38% of Conservative voters and 24% of Labour voters.

But Reform voters are most pessimistic about what will happen to public trust, with three-quarters (75%) expecting it to fall – higher than among the public as a whole (52%), Conservative voters (66%) or Labour voters (37%).

Higher crime and the wealthy unfairly influencing government policy are seen as top risks of rising wealth inequality

Around four in 10 people say, if wealth inequality in the UK were to rise over the next few years, increasing levels of crime (42%) and very wealthy people having an unfair influence on government policies (41%) are likely to be negative impacts – the top answers given.

However, similar proportions also say declining levels of trust in democracy and politics (37%), worsening levels of mental health (37%) and increased power differences between high- and low-income areas of the UK (37%) are likely.

The very rich are still seen as more powerful than national governments

A third (34%) of the public rank the very rich, such as the top 1%, as having the most power in society, compared with a quarter (24%) who feel national governments are most powerful.

These figures are only slightly changed from last year, when 39% put the very rich as most powerful – which marked a shift from 2018, when national governments (33%) were perceived as having greater power than the super-rich (29%).

The public see little chance of a change in dynamic: they are most likely to think the very rich will still be most powerful in 2030, while two-thirds say they are concerned about the distribution of power between them and other key groups in Britain today (65%) and by 2030 (63%).

Most of the public say the gap between the wealthy and those with little wealth is too large

Six in 10 (60%) believe the gap between those with lots of wealth and those with little wealth is too large – although this is down from seven in 10 (72%) in 2023.

And between 2023 and 2024, both sets of voters for the two main parties have become less likely to say the wealth gap in Britain is too large, in part reflecting changing voter bases between elections. For example, seven in 10 (69%) Labour voters say the gap is too large – down from 88%.

Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, said:

“This study outlines the stark challenges facing the government in creating a sense of optimism and belief that a brighter future is possible by the end of their first term. The public, and Labour’s own supporters, are more likely to think poverty and inequality will get worse rather than better. Only minorities think that economic growth, funding for public services or their own living standards will increase, although Labour supporters are more positive about each of these. And, perhaps most worrying of all, only 14% expect public trust in the government to increase, with half thinking it will decrease.

“But there is likely a long way to go until the next general election and there are more encouraging signs that the government is focusing on issues that do concern the public, including the impact of very high levels of wealth inequality. It is still startling that the public now think the top 1% have more power and influence than national governments, when the reverse was the case in 2018. And the public are concerned about this inequality in wealth and power, seeing all sorts of knock-on effects, in increasing crime rates and decreasing trust in democracy and social mobility.”

Will Snell, chief executive of the Fairness Foundation, said:

“This polling underscores the complexity of public attitudes about wealth and wealth inequality. People have an intuitive sense that wealth inequality is getting worse and is unfair in terms of both its causes and its consequences – even if the true extent of wealth inequality and its impacts on our economy, society and democracy is not widely recognised.

“At the same time, however, there is deep cynicism about whether politicians can turn things around. Overcoming this will be challenging, but if the government can improve people’s living standards while addressing their deeply held sense of unfairness, there is a chance that the pessimistic public mood can be lifted.”

Survey details
Opinium surveyed 2,050 UK adults aged 18+ online between 16 and 18 October 2024. Results are weighted to be nationally and politically representative.