King's College London

Speaking about the future for US-China relations if Trump were re-elected and what it would mean in Beijing, Professor Brown said: 

"I think [Beijing’s] first thought would be that the trade wars will probably start again. They’ll think of Trump as being very transactional in his last period in office. He really sort of hit them for a better trade deal and they did a partial one so I think they’re going to expect that back. They will interpret it as a kind of America which is now extremely hard to predict - its very unstable, very divided. They'll also think that 50% of the people in America have probably supported Trump, but 50% haven't and its going to be a very divided country that they're dealing with. 

I think that will have an impact on their geopolitics and their own domestic politics because they will really try to retrench and in a sense insure themselves against an America which they once thought was very predictable and stable - even if they didn't like it - to an America which is now the opposite in terms of its stability but is still very difficult for them".

 On Trump’s comments that Taiwan might need to pay for American security, Professor Brown said Trump was explicitly alluding to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, which produces over 90% of the world’s high-grade semiconductors. He noted their extreme importance, saying that America is aware of this vulnerability and that “they want a lot of that production to shift to America for security and business reasons. [Taiwan] know that its good to have America’s support as a security ally of course but it comes with big costs and with Trump those costs will be giving tech, giving trade to America, giving things in return for America’s military as well as political support.” 

 Speaking on the importance of tone in candidates' foreign policy, Brown said a Trump presidency would have "a different tone for all of us. The Chinese are very aware there will be a difference, they’re not ever going to have an easy time with America, but Biden was a predictable difference, in a way. Trump is going to be extremely unpredictable and for the Chinese, with their domestic issues, they don’t like that kind of unpredictability."

 This article is based on an interview with Professor Brown for BBC World News on 17 July 2024.