What exactly is COP29?
The 29th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) annual Conference of the Parties (COP) begins this week in Baku, Azerbaijan.
COP is an annual negotiation among parties (countries) to the UN Framework Convention (UNFCC). The UNFCCC itself encompasses many things in one. It is one of only a few international treaties that have been universally ratified. It is a UN entity with a Secretariat based in Bonn, Germany.
It also includes an array of mechanisms, ‘bodies’, instruments, and institutions that facilitate key aspects of the climate agenda, including technical support, funding, and policy guidance on emissions mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage.
Who attends and how does it work?
To understand the negotiations themselves, it is important to remember that COP represents a convening for political negotiation and diplomacy that punctuates year-round work across many different institutions and working bodies such as the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Committee, the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, etc.
Through the negotiations, governments send representatives who convene annually to negotiate the terms of decisions and policy frameworks, for example The Paris Agreement, that shape collective global action (or inaction) on climate change.
During COP, Parties discuss the terms for directives over the coming year, sometimes with heated debates down to specific word choices in decision texts.
Increasingly COP has also become a larger convention and meeting space for civil society stakeholders, activists, researchers, and the private sector to collaborate, share ideas on climate action, and in many cases attempt to influence the direction of the negotiations.
This year’s conference will be different than recent years, where the number of non-governmental observers has grown exponentially. The COP Presidency this year cut observer badges to one per organisation and an estimated 50,000 negotiators and observers will travel to Baku, down from almost 100,000 at COP28 in Dubai, UAE last year. This major shift from prior attendance trends is due to a number of reasons including a desire to increase Global South representation, infrastructure limitations in Baku, the late announcement of the host with less time to prepare, and a similarly pared down private sector presence.
This pared down conference could enable a more focused COP and negotiation process.
What is the most pressing issue for discussion at this year’s meeting?
Climate finance is the main issue on the agenda for this year. Back in 2009 as one of the few outcomes of the famously disastrous Copenhagen summit (COP15), developed country Parties pledged to contribute a collective $100 billion per year towards climate finance. This commitment was formalised within the Paris Agreement in 2021 but the actual transfer of funds stemming from these pledges – including in contributions to the funding distributed by the Green Climate Fund – have fallen far short of this pledge. This year at what has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’, Parties will negotiate a New Collective Quantified Goal (known as the ‘NCQG’) for climate finance, aimed at setting a new financial target beyond 2025 to support developing countries and address current gaps in climate finance. This target needs to both increase ambition and the accessibility of funds to those who need them most.
What else is on the agenda?
Other pressing areas of climate finance on the agenda include preparing the newly established Loss and Damage Fund by approving structural decisions made during the year and interim terms for administering funds.
Beyond finance, COP29 will be about moving from commitment frameworks to action. Through the Global Stocktake (GST) at last year’s meeting in Dubai, Parties collectively assessed progress towards reducing emissions below the 1.5 degree C target, and 2 degree temperature threshold by evaluating progress on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This year begins a new round of modified NDC submissions, and Parties and observers alike will be pushing for more ambitious commitments.
Finally, Parties at last year’s COP successfully negotiated a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). This year should bring guidelines and mechanisms (e.g. more funding to the Adaptation Fund) to support the development and implementation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs).
What challenge is likely to be difficult to resolve?
The historic lack of follow through on financial pledges, and insufficient ambition on NDCs are ongoing challenges that could complicate the success of the negotiations this year. There have also been significant controversies around the host nation and the role of the Presidency, with a major petrostate chosen for another consecutive year. Questions remain about the incentives and willingness of the Presidency to push for more ambitious emissions cuts given that much of Azerbaijan’s economy is based in oil production, and the country is currently expanding gas production. Further, the protection of human rights in the country and the ability of activists to speak freely and hold Parties accountable remain uncertain and could impact the negotiation process and outcomes. These different political and ambition challenges could all complicate or obstruct success on any of the aforementioned negotiation items.
The recent outcome of the US Presidential election is also a looming challenge to the negotiations overall considering Trump has threatened to again pull out of the Paris Agreement upon taking office in January. While this will not impact this year’s COP some governments may be looking towards the future with a US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as license to avoid pressure to act. Even if the US leaves again, history suggests other high emitting countries will not follow suit, but this could impact the collective degree of ambition within the next round of NDC submissions.
How will we know if COP29 has been a success?
While this annual convening produces an array of outcomes, the relative success or failure of an annual COP is measured based on the progress of the negotiations themselves – including the types of decisions that are made and how ambitious they are. Defining success at COP can be difficult when so many important policy areas are being negotiated. But look for meaningful increases in financial targets with emphasis on ensuring governments actually follow through, as well as mutual pressure towards more ambitious NDC commitments.
Where can I find out more?
To learn more about the negotiations check out the UNFCCC’s YouTube channel, where many sessions and side events are livestreamed daily throughout COP. We also have King's delegates attending in-person and virtually as an Non-Governmental Organisations Observers to the negotiations who will be sharing insights via our social media channels using #KingsatCOP and on our King's at COP29 online pages.