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Can COP28 drive progress for environmental security policies worldwide?

Angelika Etherington-Smith

BA student in International Relations

06 December 2023

As COP28 continues its discussions on moving towards a more sustainable and resilient world, BA student Angelika Etherington-Smith interviews Owen Hanley, an MA student in International Conflict Studies who has been developing a wargame for the Kings Environmental Security Research Group. For Owen, we need better sustainable policies to tackle both the environmental impact of conflict and the environmental causes of conflict.

What does environmental security mean to you?

Owen: I don’t explicitly have a singular definition of environmental security, but I would say as a concept environmental security has multiple key facets. The first aspect concerns how the environment itself is directly and indirectly impacted by conflict, and how this can subsequently be mitigated/reduced by governments through the implementation of sustainable policies. The second aspect concerns how the environment itself can become a source of conflict through natural resource competition, and how this is very likely to worsen as the effects of anthropogenic climate change increase in the upcoming years and, therefore, how governments and organisations can address this.

Nowadays, it is well established that climate change is a threat multiplier for conflicts, but this has varied from conflict to conflict. As the effects of anthropogenic climate change worsen, I believe the ‘level of threat multiplying’ will only worsen in upcoming years, especially in poorer countries which lack the adequate infrastructure to deal with worsening climate change.

Do you think the COP28 discussions are adequately addressing environmental security?

Owen: I am honestly unsure to what extent environmental security will be adequately addressed or discussed in-depth at COP28. This is due to COP28 being primarily centred around discussing how nations can ensure they are on track for achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal of climate adaptation and hitting that 1.5 Celsius target. Therefore, the focus on emissions reduction and climate adaptation will take centre stage. In regards to environmental security, it would be nice to see leading political figures explicitly addressing this as a key concern to raise mainstream awareness beyond academic and policy circles.

What are some of the challenges facing this COP?

Owen: In my opinion, hosting it in a country that developed its wealth by relying on fossil fuels undermines the ethos of sustainability and is likely to breed cynicism surrounding governments addressing climate change. This will only be exacerbated by media reports which allege the UAE is planning on using the event to broker more oil and gas deals. Irrespective of the report’s authenticity, this sort of press around the event may lead to sections of the general public seeing COP as nothing more than performative politics. I think transparency and honesty are crucial as both climate scepticism and distrust of governments in the West is only growing. This, if COP is seen as performative, it will make people less receptive to new sustainable policies.

How successful do you think COP28 will be?

Owen: I think success is hard to define from a conference, as we can only really gauge its success in the years after. For example, if we successfully meet the 1.5 Celsius target and reduce emissions. From an environmental security standpoint, world leaders need to publicly acknowledge the links between climate change, resource mismanagement, and conflict (climate change as a threat multiplier). That would be a success and a step in the right direction.

What are the next steps towards achieving environmental security?

Owen: I think what is crucial is environmental security is not a static endpoint; it is a continual, dynamic process where new threats and issues will pop up. Therefore, a preventative approach is required. For example, looking at various climate mitigation strategies within the realm of conflict is key. I personally think retroactively examining the role of climate change in recent conflicts is crucial, looking at resource competition and internal migration, and then using that to develop preventative strategies in similar countries which may be at risk of climate-induced or climate-influenced conflict.

Tell us about your work with King’s Environmental Security Research Group

Owen: Since the summer, I have been creating a climate and sustainability-focused wargame for the Kings Environmental Security Research Group. It is an online open-source Email simulation game titled ‘Business as Usual’. In the game, you are a sustainable development project manager within the fictional city of New Bedford, where you have been tasked with transforming the district of Greenville Heights into a sustainable community by 2030.

In the game, you respond to various emails in which you will have to deal with sustainability issues as you choose, manage, and oversee the smooth implementation of sustainability projects within the district. However, you also have to make sure you maintain your other

professional responsibilities alongside this. The game itself works in a round format, where you have only three minutes to read and respond to the emails. Your actions have consequences in the game, as you have both a sustainability and a reputation score you must manage throughout the game. Crucially, the decisions you make throughout will determine the future of Greenville Heights as there are multiple endings within the game based upon the decisions you make.

The game itself was shaped through multiple interviews I conducted with senior sustainability experts across a range of fields in which I asked them about the challenges they face in implementing sustainability within their respective organisations. The game is now complete and should be ready for a formal release within the next months.

How can King’s community engage more with research on environmental security?

Owen: I would say the crucial thing would be for students and academics to consider how environmental security is relevant to their work. Often there is the assumption that it is something separate when its relevance is present to some degree within all fields of War Studies. If academics could revisit their works and modules and look at them through an environmental-sustainability lens, that would be a good start and may prove insightful.

What advice would you give to students interested in this field?

Owen: As a current MA student, I would recommend prospective students to take the Environmental Security module run by Dr Richard Milburn MBE as it is how I got my start in this field. I found it incredibly eye-opening and I think it is the only module within the department that properly reflects there is an ‘academic lag’ of sorts regarding the environment and conflict. I would also like to mention Dr Helen Adams, a senior lecturer in climate change adaptation at King's. She was seconded to the British Cabinet during COP26 and has done a lot of work surrounding climate change adaptation, but crucially, climate change communication.

In general, as cliched as it is, be proactive, reach out to lecturers within the field and enquire about opportunities. Environmental security is a growing field and as young people we are in a prime position to develop it further.

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