“As additional observational data is gathered, the probability of impact is expected to decrease. NASA and ESA astronomers are actively refining 2024 YR4's trajectory, and historical trends show that most objects initially flagged as risks eventually become non-threats. However, the asteroid will become too faint to observe from Earth after April 2025 and won’t be visible again until 2028, making it difficult to further refine its trajectory in the short term. This observational gap highlights the importance for us to gather as much data as possible before it becomes unobservable.
“If 2024 YR4 were confirmed to be on a collision course, there would likely still be time for a deflection mission, depending on when the risk is identified. Potential deflection methods include:
- Kinetic impactors, such as NASA’s DART mission, which successfully altered the orbit of an asteroid in 2022.
- Gravity tractors, which involve a spacecraft gradually pulling the asteroid off course using its gravitational influence.
- Nuclear deflection, which could be a last resort if time is limited.
“Early action would be crucial, as later interventions become significantly more difficult. However, no deflection mission is currently planned, as 2024 YR4 is still being monitored and has not been confirmed as a threat. Further observations are needed to refine its trajectory and assess the need for any mitigation efforts.”