The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) slipped to the third place in the French legislative elections. What's next?
Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) was anticipated to win the July 7 elections, potentially making Jordan Bardella the new Prime Minister. Instead, the left-wing coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), composed by the Socialists, the Greens, and more radical branches of the left, pulled off an unexpected victory.
This win for the left has been welcomed as a reaffirmation of France's deep-rooted Republican values and highlighted the power of voter mobilisation. However, the situation is more complex than it appears. The NFP's 182 seats fall short of an absolute majority (289 seats), while the RN, alongside Les Républicains (LR) led by Eric Ciotti, secured 143 seats. This result is not a decisive victory for the left nor a huge defeat for the far right.
RN's political setback but growing influence
Despite not obtaining a political victory, Le Pen’s party achieved its best-ever result, improving on the 89 seats won in 2022. The RN remains a unified force, unlike the NFP, which is set to face significant challenges in finding consensus due to its lack of an absolute majority, internal divisions, and Macron's status as a president without majority support.
Le Pen’s prospects for the 2027 elections hinge on two key factors: one, it will depend on the new government's ability to meet voters' needs and cooperate effectively; two, on the strength and appeal of the centre-left's candidates. Either way, it might be too soon to predict the direction France’s hung Parliament will take.
What is certain, however, is that the current political landscape leaves room for the RN to strengthen its position and become even more relevant by 2027 than it already is.
What's next for the RN?
Despite the uncertainties following the legislative results, the far right's influence in French and European politics is undeniable. That the NFP victory was unexpected and perceived as shocking speaks volumes about the high expectations surrounding a potential RN success.
One must not forget that the recent legislative elections were influenced by the RN's strong performance in the elections for the European Parliament in June 2024, highlighting the far right's growing power in Europe, including in Italy, Hungary, and the Netherlands, and across the world if we consider Trump’s potential victory in the US.
Focusing solely on the left’s success risks framing the far right as officially defeated. At the same time, emphasising the evident challenges of the NFP and Macron’s weaknesses of the new government risks shifting the focus from the RN's persistent anti-democratic ambitions and its potential to become a dominant opposition force.
While Le Pen’s party did not win this time and might not win the next election, its steady rise suggests it will remain a significant player in the political arena.