A biopsychosocial risk prediction model
As part of her research, Dr Stevenson’s set out to build a risk prediction model that would indicate which older adults would be most likely to experience harm from their medicines eight weeks after an acute hospital admission. The aim is to stratify patients into different risk categories so that those who are at highest risk are placed into a priority pathway to see a specialist, such as a geriatrician, senior pharmacist or clinical nurse specialist. Those who are at medium risk could be streamlined to see their GP, and those at a lower risk could potentially be followed up by a community pharmacist.
“I saw that clinical factors, such as patient’s diseases, their biochemistry – renal function, liver function, biomarkers – the types and numbers of medicine they were prescribed, had been looked at quite extensively and been included in previous models. But those models had limited accuracy. This reflected what I see in my clinical practice, where patients with multiple clinical conditions, take multiple medicines but they don’t all experience harm, so it seemed something was missing from the models.”
After going through the literature it became evident that social variables were also key. Taking inspiration from the concept of frailty, where a wide range of factors are considered to understand someone’s risk of harm from external stressors, Dr Stevenson began building her model.
“How do they use their medicine? Do they have any support? What’s their mood like? Do they have motivation to take their medicine? Whether or not someone lived alone emerged as a key element.”