UK General Election 2024: King's expert analysis and insights

28 June to July 4

Leading policy experts, commentators, journalists and academics shared insights and analysis on the election plus future challenges for the new Labour government at King’s Election Night 2024. The event, held at Bush House on 4 July, was hosted by the Policy Institute, UK in a Changing Europe, Strand Group, King's Global Institute for Women's Leadership, International School for Government and the NIHR Health and Social Care Workforce Research Unit. W

Watch the recording of the event.

Professor Andrew Blick, Head of the Department of Political Economy, set out what would happen in the days, weeks and months following an election. He was also interviewed by AFP about the tradition of novelty candidates standing for election in the UK and quoted in the Los Angeles Times about what Reform UK might do after the election.

Professor Roger Mortimore, Professor of Public Opinion & Political Analysis for the School of Politics & Economics, spoke to Channel 4 News’ FactCheck about how the exit poll works and how reliable it is.

Professor David Edgerton, of the Faculty of Arts & Humanities, wrote an opinion piece for The Guardian about Labour positioning itself as a party of growth.

Professor Jonathan Portes, of the Department of Political Economy, was quoted in a Financial Times article about Labour’s options for boosting trade with Europe. He was also quoted in a Guardian article about the Conservatives’ approach to immigration since David Cameron.

Professor Robert Blackburn, of The Dickson Poon School of Law, explained where constitutional law meets historical precedent with regards to the Royals and General Elections in the Daily Express.

Dr George Gross, a Visiting Research Fellow in the Faculty of Arts & Humanities, was quoted on the Associated Press about the role of the monarch in the transfer of power on election day.

Dr Nigel Fletcher, of the School of Politics & Economics, was quoted in an article in The Times about what happens when a new Prime Minister meets the monarch.

Sir Vernon Bogdanor, of the School of Politics & Economics, spoke to The Economist about issues the incoming government will be dealing with.

Professor Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe, was quoted in Das Bild (Germany) and appeared in a video for The Hindu (India) about the election.

Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute, explored how different generations are being targeted by political parties in their campaigns, their priorities and how much our political views are divided along generational lines.

Professor Rosie Campbell, of the School of Politics & Economics and Director of the Global Institute for Women’s Leadership, shared her thoughts on how much will women determine who wins the UK General Election and what they want the incoming government to prioritise.

Professors Irene Higginson, Annette Boaz and Mary Malone, of the Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery & Palliative Care, look at the healthcare challenges facing a new government, and how the NHS can move forward into a better future, in a piece for our Poll to Poll 2024 series of expert comment.

21 June to 27 June

Professor Andy Sumner, of the Department of International Development, examined each of the main parties’ manifestos and how UK development policies and priorities could shift.

With many UK rivers currently at threat from poorly performing water companies, Professor Michael Chadwick and Professor Robert Francis, both of the Department of Geography, compared party proposals for reforming the current system. Both pieces are in our Poll to Poll 2024 series of expert comment.

The UK in a Changing Europe published a list of ‘seats to watch’ on the evening of 4 July, through to the early hours of 5 July.

Our academics have been quoted in the media:

Professor Jonathan Portes, of the Department of Political Economy, wrote an opinion piece on migration and how all parties want to reduce it for the Financial Times. He was also a guest on the Telegraph's Daily T Podcast debating the topic of immigration with Reform UK’s chairman Richard Tice.

Professor Martin Weale, of King's Business School, discussed with Bloomberg what would happen to mortgage costs if leader Reform UK leader Nigel Farage wins the General Election.

Professor Anand Menon, of UK in a Changing Europe, was also interviewed on Bloomberg about opinion polls and the possible outcomes of the General Election.

Dr Nigel Fletcher, of the Department of Political Economy, commented on members of the Conservative party being investigated by the Gambling Commission on BBC Radio 5 Live.

Dr Samir Puri, of the Department of War Studies, discussed Reform UK leader Nigel Farage's comments on the Russia-Ukraine war on BBC News 24.

Dr Jack Brown, Lecturer in London Studies and London Partnerships Director, was a guest on BBC One's Politics London show discussing how much parties’ campaigns so far have resonated with Londoners.

Professor Richard Sullivan, Director of the Institute of Cancer Policy at King's, wrote a comment piece on how is it time for the next government to take cancer seriously.

We also published comments from King's academics on what health policy priorities the incoming government should focus on featuring insights from Dr Zoë Bell, Research Associate of the Department of Nutritional Sciences, Dr Claire Feeley, Lecturer from the Department of Midwifery, Professor Miraz Rahman, Professor of Medicinal Chemistry from the School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, and Professor Claire Steves, Professor of Ageing and Health and Director of King’s College London new Centre for Ageing Resilience in a Changing Environment. Both articles are part of our Poll to Poll 2024 series exploring the many elections happening around the world this year.

On 25 June, the Policy Institute and HEPI hosted a panel discussion Four Futures: Shaping Higher Education in England, chaired by King’s Vice-Chancellor and President Professor Shitij Kapur. Also on 25 June, the Faculty of Social Science & Public Policy hosted an expert panel General Election 2024: Manifestos Under The Microscope, exploring the feasibility of the parties’ proposals on key policy areas including security, the environment, immigration and the economy.

On 27 June the School of Politics & Economics hosted a panel discussion What now, what next? The General Election and the first 100 days, featuring expert academics and guests who analysed the final few polls and what can we expect in the first few months of the next government. Watch the event recording.

Also on 27 June was a screening and discussion hosted by the Strand Group around the documentary ‘We Are The Treasury’, about dramatic events in the days after the 1997 General Election. As well as hearing from the documentary makers, the attendees heard from Ed Balls and Lord Macpherson about this period in government and what lessons is offers for the upcoming election.

The Conservative’s record on tackling housing issues over the past 14 years was the topic of a new Conversation article written by Chloe Sheppick, Deputy Director of the Professional Law Institute and a Lecturer in Law in the Dickson Poon School of Law.

The UK in a Changing Europe published research-based manifesto analysis exploring the policies the Conservative and Labour parties say they will implement if they are to win the next election. It also published a piece by Dr Joël Reland looking at the likely challenges Labour will face around its EU strategy.

14 June to 20 June

With the election campaigns gathering pace, conspiracy theories and culture war debates are likely to be thrown into the mix by politicians. In a thread on X, we outlined why this is a concern, according to a recent report on 'conspiracy loops' from Demos, to which King’s research contributed.

Research by The Policy Institute found that mass university closures would worry seven in 10 people with the government getting the blame. The survey also found few voters see universities as an election priority, despite the high esteem in which they are held. 

In an article published on The Conversation, Dr Nigel Fletcher, of the School of Politics & Economics, said Conservative warnings of Labour securing a ‘supermajority’ are nonsense but he also outlines how a Labour landslide still has consequences.

Four new comment pieces were created as part of our Poll to Poll 2024 series looking at elections and democracy around the world this year:

Dr Marina Miron, Dr Thomas Colley and Sir David Omand, all from the School of Security Studies, explored the question 'how is fake news' is affecting the UK General Election and can anything be done about it?'

Dr Lindsey Edwards, Senior Lecturer in Microbiology in the Faculty of Dentistry, Oral & Craniofacial Sciences, wrote about how antimicrobial resistance and the development of new antibiotics, vaccines, and diagnostics needs urgent attention from the next government.

Dr Nathan Cheetham, Senior Postdoctoral Data Scientist in the Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, highlighted the importance of increasing socio-economic diversity among doctors, and its role in addressing inequalities in the quality of primary care and NHS workforce shortfalls.

Dr Joe Devanny, Lecturer in the Department of War Studies, called on the incoming government to review and revamp the methods by which national security decisions are made and implemented. 

Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute, wrote an article for the Sunday Times exploring why no party is trying to win the vote of Generation X who make up 28 per cent of the electorate.

Dr Nigel Fletcher, Teaching Fellow in Politics and Contemporary History, was interviewed on Times Radio about which party might make up the largest opposition after the election and on LBC News radio about Labour's chances of securing a victory on the scale some are predicting. Professor Anand Menon was quoted in the International Business Times about the challenges facing the incoming government.

Professor Paula Surridge wrote a piece for the UK and a Changing Europe exploring the disintegration of the 2019 Conservative coalition and how it is losing voters to both Labour and Reform UK.

The School of Politics & Economics shared a new podcast episode in their Breaking Britain series looking at the impact of the 2024 election on UK foreign and defence policy.

7 June to 13 June

Academics in the School of Politics & Economics, drawing on their research and expertise, shared their insights into what the policy priorities should be for the new UK government once elected.

The UK in a Changing Europe, based at King’s, published a new comment piece exploring the prospects for tactical voting at this election and shared an analysis of the impact of television debates on voters.

They also published A Beginner’s Guide to General Elections. This followed on from their guide earlier this year on Polling: What is it and how does it work?

Professor Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs, was also quoted in the Sunday Telegraph about the absence of Brexit as a topic during the campaigns to date.

31 May to 6 June

On the King’s main X channel we posted an explanation from Tony Thorne, Director of the Slang and New Language Archive at King’s, about the rise of the phrase “genny lec” or “genny lex” to describe the General Election.

Professor Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, commented on Labour pledges to cut work visas in the Financial Times, on Bloomberg about a Conservative pledge to cap migration and on BBC News 24 and BBC Radio London discussing claims about tax made during the televised debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.

Professor Sir Vernon Bogdanor, Research Professor at the Centre for British Politics and Government, wrote a piece for The i exploring how much opinion polls influence voters’ behaviour and political campaigns.

On 4 June, a new report was published from the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), sponsored by the Policy Institute, setting out four scenarios for the long-term future of higher education in England, and the publication was covered by The Independent.

The UK in a Changing Europe, based at King’s, published an analysis of the role of TikTok in this election and also whether the return of Nigel Farage would make a difference to the election outcome.

22 May to 30 May

As soon as the snap election was announced, academics from the School of Politics & Economics reacted to the news, appearing in national and international newspapers, broadcast and online media.

Dr Nigel Fletcher, Teaching Fellow in Politics and Contemporary History, spoke to Bloomberg and Times Radio about the election and to the Daily Mirror about what factors Prime Ministers consider when deciding to call an election.

Dr Rod Dacombe, Reader in Politics in the Department of Political Economy and Director of the Centre for British Politics and Government, discussed the issues which could prove central to the election campaign in an interview with French publication La Depeche du Midi.

Professor Rosie Campbell, Professor of Politics and Director of the Global Institute for Women’s Leadership at King’s, appeared on BBC Radio 4 Woman’s Hour discussing women’s voting behaviour and likely priorities in the upcoming election.

Professor Andrew Blick, Head of the Department of Political Economy and Professor of Politics and Contemporary History, was a guest on both BBC News 24 and Al Jazeera Arabic discussing the election. He also co-signed a letter sent to the three main political parties calling for whoever becomes Prime Minister to swear an oath pledging to uphold constitutional standards and integrity.

Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, wrote a piece for the New Statesman on Labour’s approach to foreign and defence policies and how they will dominate the first weeks of the new government.

Dr George Gross, a Visiting Research Fellow and founder of the British Coronations Project, was quoted on the Associated Press and in The Independent about how during the turbulence of elections, the UK public often looks to the monarchy for continuity.

On the day the election was called, King’s was hosting the London Defence Conference which included hearing about current security concerns and spending commitments from senior Conservative and Labour politicians.

The university also shared guidance for staff and information for students on how to register to vote, as well as advice on carrying out professional activities during the pre-election period.