(IOC), published in late 2020. Of particular note for the future of defence was the differentiation between ‘warfighting’ and ‘operating’. Whereas warfighting remains the ‘bread and butter’ of the armed forces, or should in theory, operating pointed towards an attempt to address the problem of persistent competition below the threshold of war through a engaged, forward-deployed posture. Rather than a mere collection of peacetime activities, ‘operating’ provides a campaign like framework, synergising various activities – from capacity-building and state visits to exercises and deterrence of sovereign challenges – with the aim to produce or further specific effects. Within this paradigm, the IOC noted that ‘operating includes the complementary functions of protect, engage and constrain [emphasis added].’ Whilst Protect refers to the more mainstream role of defence, Constrain and Engage are worth a closer look when it comes to defence and the Indo-Pacific.
Constrain: Multilateralising to Deter
Described as the most ‘proactive and assertive‘ element of the IOC’s model, Constrain in essence serves as an escalatory rung in the ‘operating’ model, above the traditional peace-time activities of defence and security. Foreshadowing the Integrated Review, it places emphasis on ‘shaping’ the behaviour of opponents, both overtly and covertly, using deterrence through calibrated shows of force to prevent fait accompli strategies and the opponent from achieving escalation control. Of note for the Indo-Pacific is reference to ‘challenging assertions of sovereignty through deployments and freedom of navigation operations…’
In the Indo-Pacific, whilst this could include any nation, it likely had China and North Korea in mind. Indeed the IOC was one of the first British doctrinal documents to consistently refer to China, alongside Russia, as one of Britain’s main rivals. The Integrated Review would also argue that China was a ‘systemic challenge‘, though it placed Russia above as ‘the most acute direct threat‘ to the UK.
As a middle power, it is well recognised that Britain cannot hope to challenge China in the defence realm alone. However, merely measuring utility of defence through tonnage, number of VLS cells, personnel numbers and airframes ignores the political connectivity that is attached to deployments, and the nature of the environment in which they operate.
Even a vessel as small as an offshore patrol vessel can provide real political value to the local nations, something which they themselves have noted. The addition of more nations, and their respective forces, to the region further complicates the strategic calculus that the Chinese are attempting to make, especially in particularly ‘hot’ areas like the South and East China Seas. For the predominantly non-aligned Southeast Asian nations in particular, the anchoring of ‘security stakeholders such as the UK to the region helps to maintain the balance of power, take the edge off US–China rivalry and expand the region’s strategic options.’ In many ways, the UK approach is simply a return to and modification of old ideas, providing a non-aligned Southeast Asia with options and assurances from the background.
Whilst entirely outmatched in firepower by their likely opposite numbers, a River II OPV, for example, brings with it the top-cover of a European, permanent Security Council member, with all the connected alliances and relationships attached. Undoubtedly Chinese vessels will attempt to bully such smaller craft where possible, as they have been known to do in the past with much larger ships. However, if it were to unnecessarily escalate through purpose or accident, they ‘do so in the full knowledge that there would be international repercussions.‘ British forces, be they aircraft, ships or soldiers, though small in number, would bring with them the deterrent effect of the flag they serve under, and all the relationships associated with it, constraining the options of systemic challengers like China. Below such a threshold, the planned OPVs and LRG are sufficiently suited to posturing with naval and coastguard vessels. Whilst not a full-proof safeguard for the lesser capabilities, it is a form of deterrence not so dissimilar to the past.
Engage: Integrating into the Region
Unlike Constrain, Engage is less assertive, but no less useful, on the escalation scale. Encompassing more traditional military peace-time activities, the IOC mentions specifically the networks between military officials – bilaterally and multilaterally – capacity-building and persistent presence; all with the intention of providing ‘alternatives to the offers of our adversaries, by securing influence and denying it to them.’ The forward-deployed OPVs, garrison in Brunei, facilities in the region, the BDS and uplifted number of defence attaches all speak to the Indo-Pacific component of ‘human networks’, ‘forward-based forces’ and contributing ‘to understanding and insight and assuring regional access’ that form the core of Engage in the IOC.
Indeed, it is in the Engage prism where British forces can truly exert influence as part of a wider British approach in the region. Perhaps even more than great power competition, non-traditional threats remain a ‘top priority’ for Indo-Pacific states, especially Southeast Asian countries. Piracy, terrorism, trafficking of humans and narcotics, natural disasters and matters of bio-diversity like depleting fish stocks all remain core issues both internationally, as identified by the Integrated Review under ‘transnational challenges’, but specifically for the states of the region. The British Army’s new ‘Ranger Regiment’ appears optimised to address such challenges. Moreover, many of these themes come under the prism of ‘maritime security’, a primary job of the maligned ‘under-gunned’ OPVs and a force package similar to what is proposed with the LRG and the Future Commando Force.
When viewed through this prism, current British defence plans have much to offer when placed alongside their civilian counterparts. Working alongside local nations – working with and to their requests being paramount – the OPVs’ natural distinction as maritime security vessels can prove highly effective in Engaging with other navies and coastguards in protecting the bio-diversity, the economic lifeblood of several littoral communities, of the region. Already established efforts like the British Blue Planet Fund point to many opportunities in synergising civil capacity-building with the OPVs in the region. This is aside from guarding Britain’s own extensive maritime reserves surrounding the Pitcairn Islands.
Nor does Engaging in the Indo-Pacific stop with fishery protection. Capacity-building, training, support and networking cover all aspects of the security domain, including Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR). The British are no strangers to providing humanitarian aid in the wake of Indo-Pacific natural disasters, with defence assets – be they the strategic lift of the RAF, engineers and logisticians of the Army or naval platforms acting as hubs – all providing key technical assistance, manpower and visible support in times of need. British forces in Brunei, the planned LRG amphibious platform out of Duqm and the RAF’s aircraft of No.2 Group will all prove flexible instruments of support in this area. Even the planned two River II craft, if they kept the capability of their exported cousins, can carry six ISO containers for rapid delivery of aid.
However, Engage does not simply mean capacity-building and integrating at the maritime security level. Much has already been written on the flagship, both literal and metaphorical, deployment of the HMS Queen Elizabeth on her European and Indo-Pacific tour (CSG21). But it does highlight another part of the Engage element of the IOC and wider ‘Middlepowerdom’ of the British defence effort in the Indo-Pacific. The first British carrier in Southeast Asia since 2013, and first large carrier deployment in the Indo-Pacific since 1997, consists not just of British vessels and aircraft, but Dutch and Americans too. Even more remarkably, the F-35B component of the carrier air-wing sees the majority consisting of US Marine Corps pilots and airframes.
As a result, though somewhat symptomatic of a still working-up British carrier, the trade off in true sovereign capabilities purchases remarkable ‘convening’ influence for British defence in the area, and a multitude of opportunities for the future. As one of only four European nations to possess a carrier capability, Britain is positioned – alongside France and even, perhaps, Italy – to serve as a centrepiece ‘convenor’ of European defence intent into the Indo-Pacific if the option was ever chosen to pursue a more united European front to the region in the future.
Asides from the aspirational, the proof of concept of American F-35Bs off a foreign carrier provides opportunities for customers of the STOVL variety. Whilst entire squadrons of Japanese F-35Bs on a Queen Elizabeth-class carrier is unlikely in the future, the opportunity for single pilots, and thus further military networking and Engagement, seems more plausible. Moreover, as highlighted by Army, Naval and RAF engagements over the last few years in the region, this does not require the British to provide the set-piece instrument of defence power.