Regrettably, this did not deter Russian aggression and even amid pandemic, the violence rages intensely. The Military Times cited a report describing the carnage between March 4 and March 24; a time when most of the country, and the world, entered lockdown conditions. In it, they registered that 10 Russian troops were killed and 46 wounded, and that Ukraine saw four of its troops killed and 24 wounded. It also states the Separatists continue to use heavy weapons, anti-tank missile systems, and counted a total of 170 shelling’s. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently fighting a war on two fronts: Coronavirus and Russian-backed rebels.
Covid-19 and Military Responses:
However, many examples exist of the Ukrainian military adjusting to work side by side with civilians to combat the virus. This is resulting in much improved civil-military relations.There are a number of ways in which this is happening.
- Firstly, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, like many countries around the world, reached out to retired military personnel, requesting for joint activities to tackle cases of coronavirus infection. In particular, the Army called on over 800,000 veterans with specific medical skills to return for duty and help train volunteers assisting to combat Covid in the conflict-zones.
- The Reserve Forces are automatically enlisted in “Active Status” to combat the virus.
- The Joint Forces Operation, deployed on the Eastern Front, has produced four mobile hospitals containing 250 beds and 45 ventilators. These hospitals will aid coronavirus patients, both military and civilian, in the immediate conflict zone.
- The Ukrainian Air Force is combating the disease by transporting shipments of medical cargo from China, such as infection tests and support kits.
- The Ministry of Defence had successfully facilitated cooperation between local authorities and military unit commanders. This occurred when the pandemic jeopardised the food supply chain of about 30 per cent of Ukrainian Armed Forces personal.
- Lastly, the National Guard’s mission has also shifted to policing and patrolling the streets of highly populated cities, like the capital. They are authorised to arrest people who violate the lockdown quarantine rules, which are extended to June 22. (Although, I have not found evidence of arrests).
Predictions for Ukraine in a Post-Covid World:
- Retaining Adaptations: It is likely that most of the Covid-19 adaptations are here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future. I predict there will be much more cooperation between local authorities and the military, adapting a modern model utilising strong civil-military relations. This will be most vital moving forward in determining how to reopen the country, much less a warzone.
- Unchanged Goals: The Armed Forces exist as the key element for Ukraine’s government in deterring continuous aggression and ensuring security in the Black Sea. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, “The ultimate goal of Ukraine is to return all its temporarily occupied territories, stop Russian military aggression and restore international order and peace.” While Covid-19 is a huge drain on resources, and will strain the country’s abilities, it will not halt this fundamental objective.
- Regional Security: No one knows for certain how Covid-19 is going to affect the Eurasia Region economically, politically, or militarily. Importantly however, the Russian Federation is also facing extraordinary circumstances and difficulties. As the greatest challenge to Ukraine’s military and autonomy, their struggles with Corona could be a welcome reprieve for Ukraine’s military and civilians in the conflict zones. If Russia’s economy becomes severely crippled, they might finally have to end their campaign in Ukraine.
- Return of Legitimacy: Ukraine could utilise the pandemic and come out stronger in the contended area. The pandemic mainly tests the government’s efficacy and efficiency in providing services in an area where the separatists fight for autonomy. If Ukraine can provide a successful and better virus response, especially before the weakened breakaway-authorities manage to do so, they may re-establish legitimacy and hopefully generate a speedier end to the conflict.
In the face of pandemic, Ukraine’s military has to focus on the country’s immediate security and defence, in order to ensure state survival. These circumstances gravely challenge Ukraine’s military, as close quarters in the barracks of active trench warfare make social distancing a near impossible task. However, the country has been taking small steps to mitigate against these challenges, bringing together civilians and the military to face the dual challenge of Covid-19 and Russian aggression. The varying degrees with which Ukraine and Russia tackle this virus, is likely to have a significant impact on the next stages of this lengthy conflict, in the post-Covid world and beyond.
Natasha Boychenko is a PhD student in the Defence Studies Department, King's College London.
This piece is part of a blog series accompanying the School of Security Studies online research conference on Global Shocks.