On the other was what analysts commonly called the “axis of upheaval”: a loosely aligned coalition that included China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, often characterised by their increasingly coordinated willingness to challenge the prevailing Western-led order. Though this division was simplistic, it resonated with experts and the public in a rapidly changing world.
Yet, with Trump’s return to the White House, US foreign policy underwent a startling realignment. Rather than reinforcing familiar alliance structures, President Trump’s approach tilted toward closer engagement with Russia and opted for transactional diplomacy designed to undercut the established liberal order. While many critics warned that these moves would unleash instability – especially for Europe, a continent long reliant on American security guarantees – the unfolding reality has also presented a silver lining.
Faced with a less committed United States, European nations have begun rethinking their security strategy, boosting defence budgets and strengthening collaboration. In just the past few weeks, several nations have announced significant boosts to their defence budgets. Britain intends to raise military spending to 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027, Denmark to 3 percent, and more countries are expected to follow. This urgency was reflected at the recent London Summit, which focused on a new policy for peace in Ukraine. It heightened further when President Trump suspended US military aid to Ukraine after clashing with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, pressuring Kyiv to concede rapidly to Moscow. This shift underscores Europe’s need for greater self-reliance and will compel European states to coordinate efforts and ramp up their own defence commitments further.
China's charm offensive
Meanwhile, China has seized the opportunity. As Europe recalibrates its security posture, Beijing has embarked on a charm offensive aimed directly at European capitals. Its message is clear: while the U.S. embroils itself in internal discord and threatens global trade norms with tariffs, China stands ready as a reliable partner willing to engage in cooperation to maintain core elements of the global order. Chinese officials emphasize a commitment to global stability and criticize what they consider Washington’s unpredictability. It is a nuanced pitch, acknowledging Europe’s emerging grievances with the US while stopping short of insisting on full alignment on flashpoints like the South China Sea or Taiwan.
Of course, European leaders remain wary of China’s ambitions, particularly in areas like technology, security, and market access. But unlike in previous years, when alignment with the US was often automatic, China’s economic overtures are now being weighed against a backdrop of American unpredictability. This shift does not necessarily signify a realignment but rather a recalibration, one where Europe might explore new forms of cooperation without fully abandoning its longstanding partnerships.
This evolving geopolitical landscape calls into question many of our longstanding assumptions. The once-dominant narrative of a clean split between a “democratic West” and an “autocratic” opposition seems increasingly untenable. Instead, alliances are rearranging in more fluid ways: the U.S. is collaborating more with Russia, European nations are forging closer ties with one another, and Beijing is seeking inroads to partner with Europe on select issues. Though American policy may seem disruptive, it has inadvertently opened doors to innovative forms of cooperation.
Transformation arising from crisis
For Europe, the risks remain significant. Without the United States as a steadfast ally, the continent faces a turbulent security environment where dangers can originate not only from Russia but also from the missteps of Western policies themselves. Yet there is also an upside. When longtime alliances shift, we cannot assume conflict is inevitable. Instead, such disruptions can create space for dialogue and new partnerships. In a period when pessimism can be tempting, it is worth remembering that transformation often arises out of moments of crisis. Europe is beginning to realize its own potential, no longer wholly dependent on American commitments, even as China’s outreach hints that those cast as “the other” might become catalysts for cooperation.
In short, the old narrative of conflict between a liberal, democratic West and a threatening autocratic bloc no longer holds. In its place is a more fluid reality where nations adapt, collaborate, and sometimes ally with former adversaries to construct a different global order. It is a complex challenge but also an opportunity; a chance to reshape the rules of engagement for the 21st century in ways that might ultimately serve all parties better.